RC
Roblox Corp (RBLX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered outsized topline and user growth: revenue $1.36B (+48% YoY, +26% QoQ), bookings $1.92B (+70% YoY), DAUs 151.5M (+70% YoY), hours 39.6B (+91% YoY); operating cash flow $546.2M (+121% YoY) and free cash flow $442.6M (+103% YoY) .
- Management raised FY25 guidance materially: bookings to $6.57–$6.62B (from $5.87–$5.97B), revenue to $4.83–$4.88B (from $4.39–$4.49B), OCF to $1.61–$1.64B (from $1.34–$1.40B), and FCF to $1.15–$1.18B (from $1.03–$1.09B); CapEx raised to $468M to support safety/AI and infrastructure .
- Versus S&P Global consensus for Q3: EPS beat (-$0.37 vs -$0.51 est), while GAAP revenue missed ($1.36B vs $1.70B est); S&P “EBITDA” also missed (actual -$241.2M vs $429.5M est)*. Note: Roblox emphasizes bookings (non-GAAP) which rose 70% YoY and are primarily deferred into future revenue recognition .
- Key drivers: multiple viral hits (Grow a Garden, Steal a Brainrot, 99 Nights in the Forest), record 45M peak concurrency, stronger 13+ cohorts and international expansion; discovery/creator economics improvements and regional pricing aided payer growth .
- Watch items: near‑term cost intensity from cloud burst/AI and higher DevEx; 2026 commentary flags tough comps and safety rollouts that may pressure margins slightly as investments catch up to growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based platform momentum: DAUs 151.5M (+70% YoY), hours 39.6B (+91% YoY), MUPs 35.8M; viral titles plus engagement outside top-10 (+58% YoY) underpin ecosystem health .
- Monetization and cash generation: bookings $1.92B (+70% YoY), OCF $546.2M (+121% YoY), FCF $442.6M (+103% YoY); average bookings per DAU increased in every region YoY .
- Strategic narrative: “tremendous progress… toward our goal of capturing 10% of the global gaming market” and establishing a “gold standard for communication safety,” with 13B+ hours/month data fueling AI world models (Cube 4D) .
What Went Wrong
- Profitability optics: consolidated net loss widened to -$257.4M YoY and Adjusted EBITDA declined to $45.7M as operating costs are recognized immediately while revenue is deferred (27-month paying user life) .
- Cost pressures: infrastructure and trust & safety expenses rose to $321.4M (+25% QoQ, +31% YoY), driven by third‑party cloud burst to support record concurrency; cost of revenue at 21.8% of revenue .
- Mix effects: rapid international payer growth diluted ABPMUP even as U.S./Canada ABPMUP grew >10% YoY; near‑term friction possible from new safety policies .
Financial Results
Income Statement and Cash Flow (USD Millions, except per-share)
Notes: Adjusted EBITDA excludes net increase in deferred revenue & deferred COGS of $147.1M (Q1), $301.5M (Q2), and $457.9M (Q3) .
User, Engagement, and Cost KPIs
Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Values with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Management noted CapEx uplift reflects demand surge and strategic investments in safety and AI; 2026 CapEx likely roughly flat vs 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our third-quarter results demonstrate the tremendous progress we’ve made toward our goal of capturing 10% of the global gaming market… We are raising our guidance for the remainder of 2025.” — David Baszucki, CEO .
- “We estimate now that 3.2% of global gaming bookings or revenue is going through Roblox, up from 2.3% last year… peak concurrency 45 million in August.” — David Baszucki .
- “Bookings have grown faster than our ability to deploy the appropriate growth investments… you’re going to see some slight margin compression as we catch up over the next few quarters.” — Naveen Chopra, CFO .
- “New safety policies… may cause some short-term friction… operating margin could decline slightly in 2026 given… higher DevEx rates and… infrastructure and safety related investments.” — Management .
Q&A Highlights
- AI roadmap and GPUs: “Real-time generation in-experience in multiplayer” via Cube 4D; building world models; deploying GPUs on owned metal with cloud burst to manage peaks .
- Creator economics vs competitors: DevEx rate matters, but creators weigh rate × platform scale × tools/velocity; intent to prudently shift more dollars to creators while managing costs .
- Older cohorts and genre expansion: Tech roadmap (server authority, custom matchmaking, avatar fidelity) targets shooters/sports/racing/RPGs; two‑thirds of DAUs are now 13+ .
- 2026 framing: Too early for numeric guidance; tough comps and safety rollouts could be headwinds; multiple tech tailwinds in H1’26 .
- Ads/UA: Rewarded Video onboarding growing but near‑term contribution modest; exploring co‑funded paid acquisition with creators under disciplined ROAS .
Estimates Context
- Q3 vs S&P Global: EPS beat (-$0.37 vs -$0.51 est), GAAP revenue missed ($1.36B vs $1.70B est), S&P EBITDA missed (actual -$241.2M vs $429.5M est)*. Roblox’s primary operating KPI (bookings) rose 70% YoY; revenue recognition defers most bookings over an estimated 27 months .
- Forward estimates: Street models imply Q4 revenue ~$2.07B and FY25 ~$6.59B*, whereas management’s updated FY25 GAAP revenue outlook is $4.83–$4.88B reflecting deferral dynamics; expect consensus revisions to re-anchor on updated bookings/FCF and higher CapEx .
Values with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Momentum is exceptional: DAUs, hours, bookings, OCF, and FCF all sharply higher, with multiple viral hits and healthier long‑tail engagement supporting durability .
- FY25 outlook reset higher across bookings, revenue, OCF, and FCF; significant CapEx uplift underscores commitment to safety/AI and infra scaling .
- Near‑term margin optics will be noisy (deferred revenue mechanics, rising DevEx/infra expense), but cash generation is strong and likely outgrows bookings into 2026 .
- Mix shift toward 13+ and international is strategic, though ABPMUP dilution can persist; U.S./Canada monetization still improving .
- Ads and commerce are call options; Rewarded Video is methodical near term with long‑term potential as tooling and demand mature .
- 2026: Tough comps and safety rollouts could modestly pressure margins; multiple tech launches (AI/genres) provide offsetting growth vectors .
- Trading lens: Expect focus on bookings trajectory vs viral-hit “fade,” cash flow resiliency, and 2026 margin commentary; any signals of sustained genre expansion or ad monetization acceleration likely positive catalysts .
Notes on non‑GAAP: Bookings, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow are non‑GAAP; reconciliations to GAAP are provided in company materials .
S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.